Expertise

Modelling and forecasting of passenger and freight traffic

One of the main activities of IEC is high-precision modelling and forecasting of demand for passenger and freight transport. The models are based on unique databases of passenger and freight traffic between regions and individual major cities by all types of transport, including those for which reliable statistics are lacking (personal car and bus transport).

The main tool for modelling, forecasting and distributing traffic flows across sections of the infrastructure network is IEC's own software product TMF (Transport Mobility Forecast), included in the unified register of Russian programmes of MinComSvyaz Rossii. The algorithms used in the model are patented. Using the TMF, IEC's experts carry out:

  • forecast of passenger and freight traffic on existing types of transport, depending on changes in speed, cost and other parameters, as well as macroeconomic conditions;
  • forecast of flows and revenues for new transport infrastructure facilities (high-speed railways and highways, airports);
  • calculation of the optimal parameters of new transport infrastructure facilities;
  • calculation of changes in the transport mobility of the population.